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Interest rate rules, exchange market pressure, and successful exchange rate management
Klaassen, Franc; Mavromatis, Kostas - 2016
Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call "pressure." Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011479735
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Likelihood-based cointegration analysis in panels of vector error correction models
Groen, Jan J. J.; Kleibergen, Frank - 1999 - This version: July 28, 1999
We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302148
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Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters
Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P.; Wel, Michel van der - 2007
In this discussion paper we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson–Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373825
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Dynamic factor models with smooth loadings for analyzing the term structure of interest rates
Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der - 2010
We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378359
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Modeling monetary policy
Reynard, Samuel; Schabert, Andreas - 2009
We develop a macroeconomic framework where money issupplied against only few eligible securities in open marketoperations. The relationship between the policy rate,expected inflation and consumption growth is affected bymoney market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value ofeligible assets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379357
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Taylor rules with endogenous regimes
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Furlanetto, Francesco; … - 2024
The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529386
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Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk
Schabert, Andreas - 2011
We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383088
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Debt, deficits, and destabilizing monetary policy in open economies
Schabert, Andreas; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2006 - Revised Version: May 2006
Blanchard (2005) suggested that active interest rate policy might induce unstable dynamics in highly-indebted economies. We examine this in a dynamic general equilibrium model where Calvo-type price rigidities provide a rationale for inflation stabilization. Unstable dynamics can occur when the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349206
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Sovereign risk and macroeconomic fluctuations in an emerging market economy
Kirchner, Markus; Rieth, Malte - 2010
This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382024
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A Bayesian analysis of unobserved component models using Ox
Bos, Charles S. - 2011
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation.In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386121