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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants …) and large markets (about 100 participants). In large markets the influence of an individual forecast on the realized price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Who can predict their own Demise? : accuracy of longevity expectations by education and cognition
Bago d'Uva, Teresa; Erdogan Ciftci, Esen; O'Donnell, Owen; … - 2015
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly explain heterogeneity in economic behaviour by education...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532122
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The power of weather : some empirical evidence on predicting day-ahead power prices through day-ahead weather forecasts
Huurman, Christian; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Chen Zhou - 2007
forecasts improves the forecast accuracy, and in particular new models with power transformations of weather forecast variables …In the literature the effects of weather on electricity sales are well-documented. However, studies that have … investigated the impact of weather on electricity prices are still scarce (e.g. Knittel and Roberts, 2005), partly because the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372511
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Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior
Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
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Forecasting aggregate productivity using information from firm-level data
Bartelsman, Eric J.; Wolf, Zoltán - 2009
This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378362
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Bayesian forecasting of US growth using basic time varying parameter models and expectations data
Basturk, Nalan; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2014
Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680
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Can Google search data help predict macroeconomic series?
Niesert, Robin; Oorschot, Jochem; Veldhuisen, Chris; … - 2019
We use Google search data with the aim of predicting unemployment, CPI and consumer confidence for the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Japan. Google search queries have previously proven valuable in predicting macroeconomic variables in an in-sample context. To our knowledge, the more challenging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987495
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
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Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices
Koster, Paul; Peer, Stefanie; Dekker, Thijs - 2014
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148