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We investigate whether US households possess advance information about their future income and what this means for consumption insurance. Based on insights from a theoretical model, we propose a new test to detect advance information, which requires only panel data on consumption and income....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186823
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708
market instruments. Using intergenerational risk sharing arrangements, risks can be allocated better across the various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013460026
Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity … returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on … from 47 developed and emerging market countries over a four-decade period. Our risk factor reflects changes in the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362976
extensive number of robustness checks. Overall, downside cash flow risk is priced most consistently across different samples … ability. The downside cash flow risk premium is mainly attributable to small stocks. The risk premium for large stocks appears … much more driven by a compensation for symmetric, cash flow related risk. Finally, we multiply our premia estimates by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382429
This paper argues that the introduction of a short-sale constraint in the Arrow-Radner frameworkinvalidates standard definitions of complete and incomplete markets. In this constrained set-up,two threshold values with familiar properties arise.The case of a zero short-sale bound set on some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316880
We develop a novel argument why better public information can help countries to insure against idiosyncratic risk … and engage in risk-sharing contracts with limited enforceability. Better public information has two opposite effects …. First, it has a detrimental effect on risk sharing by limiting risk-sharing possibilities as emphasized by Hirshleifer (1971 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011279741
The equity premium puzzle holds that the coefficient of relative risk aversion estimated from the consumption based … gauge the uncertainty pertaining to the country risk aversion estimates by means of jackknife resampling and pooling. The … confidence band for the world risk aversion estimate from the pooled country data is much tighter and the pooled point estimate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379612
In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332707
In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249642