We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...

We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...

In recent years there has been a tremendous growth in the influx of news related to traded assets in international financial markets. This financial news is now available via print media but also through real-time online sources such as internet news and social media sources. The increase in the...

Many products and services can be described as mixtures of ingredients whose proportions sum to one. Specialized models have been developed for linking the mixture proportions to outcome variables, such as preference, quality and liking. In many scenarios, only the mixture proportions matter for...

The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...