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We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified …-validation procedure. In a set of Monte Carlo experiments we reveal that the estimation method can significantly improve the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416341
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720703
We introduce a new estimation framework which extends the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to settings where a … approach is completely observation driven, rendering estimation and inference straightforward. It provides a unified framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431471
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modelled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting frequent zero values. Zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011954223
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
In this paper, we present a new time series model, whichdescribes self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) nonlinearityand seasonality simultaneously. The model is termed multiplicativeseasonal SETAR (SEASETAR). It can be viewed as a special case of ageneral non-multiplicativeSETAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304390
varying size. Based on the new modelling framework and the associated estimation technique, we find remarkable changes in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
the weighting of lagged squared innovations for the estimation of future correlations and volatilities. When we account …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380135
extension of numerically accelerated importance sampling techniques. We illustrate the new model by two empirical studies and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010253460
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289