This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon …

used to construct a forecast. Second, we discuss random projection regression, where artificial predictors are formed by … randomly weighting the original predictors. Using recent results from random matrix theory, we obtain a tight bound on the mean … squared forecast error for both randomized methods. We identify settings in which one randomized method results in more …

conditional volatilities and correlations, the distribution for the innovations and the method of forecast construction. We find … smaller. The differences from the model, distribution and forecast choices are also smaller compared to temporal aggregation. …

This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price …, suggesting the presence of nonlinear relations between the overnight price patterns and the opening gaps. This effect is mainly …

earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track …

to study its impact. We find that weather has explanatory power for the day-ahead power spot price. Using weather … forecasts improves the forecast accuracy, and in particular new models with power transformations of weather forecast variables …