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We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel … mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately … mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434050
I show that the irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic.The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510750
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Is moving to the countryside a credible commitment device for couples? Weinvestigate whether lowering the arrival rate of potential alternative partners bymoving to a less populated area lowers the dissolution risk for a sample of Danishcouples. We find that of the couples who married in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372526
Do people move to cities because of marriage market considerations? In citiessingles can meet more potential partners than in rural areas. Singles are thereforeprepared to pay a premium in terms of higher housing prices. Once married, themarriage market benefits disappear while the housing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343296
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The Spatial Interaction Model proposed by Alonso as "Theory ofMovements" offers a new specification of spatial origin-destination flow models. Equations for flows between regions, totaloutflow from and total inflow to a region are linked bybalancing factors. The paper presents a consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303870
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148
We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625