% for a 1 pp decline in the unemployment rate. For large recessions, like the Great Recession, that implies a decline in the …

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment …, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time …, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other …

understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment … mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks … that elevate jobless unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial …

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the … Phillips-curve framework of low - often extremely low - response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …