The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to … the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds … the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on …

role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is … significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further … observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative …

interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

This paper provides a unified account of the trends in unemployment and labor force participation pertaining to the … institutions in ways that deteriorate employment. The model explains simultaneously: (i) the fall in labor force participation in … the United States, (ii) the similar but more pronounced decline in Europe alongside rising unemployment rates and (iii …