This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy,...

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of ""Emerging Market leaders"" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth...