An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation rate in recent years reflects a structural development, but that the low levels of unemployment may be a mainly cyclical phenomenon.

We use a standard new Keynesian model to evaluate the cost of disinflation - measured by the sacrifice ratio, the central bank's loss function, and the welfare cost - in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy. Disinflation is either more costly or less beneficial in the small open...