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Baker, Scott R. - 2019

We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889441

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?

R. Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2021

market performance in the preceding three months. This pattern strengthens in the postwar period. Third, market volatility is … volatility and other controls. Fourth, greater clarity as to jump reason also foreshadows lower volatility. Clarity in this sense …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233977

Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street

Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, … - 2021

We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year look- ahead horizons. That is, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242015

Pandemic-era uncertainty

Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2022

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186704

COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock

Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2021

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242016

Surveying Business Uncertainty

Altig, David - 2020

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848967

It's where you work : increases in earnings dispersion across establishments and individuals in the US

Barth, Erling; Bryson, Alex; Davis, James C.; Freeman, … - 2014

This paper links data on establishments and individuals to analyze the role of establishments in the increase in inequality that has become a central topic in economic analysis and policy debate. It decomposes changes in the variance of log earnings among individuals into the part due to changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403444

Does management matter in schools?

Bloom, Nicholas; Lemos, Renata; Sadun, Raffaella; Van … - 2014

We collect data on operations, targets and human resources management practices in over 1,800 schools educating 15-year-olds in eight countries. Overall, we show that higher management quality is strongly associated with better educational outcomes. The UK, Sweden, Canada and the US obtain the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010434591

The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures

Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2022

The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013270360

Turbulence, firm decentralization and growth in bad times

Aghion, Philippe; Bloom, Nicholas; Lucking, Brian; … - 2017

What is the optimal form of firm organization during "bad times"? Using two large micro datasets on firm decentralization from US administrative data and 10 OECD countries, we find that firms that delegated more power from the Central Headquarters to local plant managers prior to the Great...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641565