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Using dynamic factor models and state-space techniques we quantify financial cycles for twenty European countries over the period 1960Q1–2015Q4 capturing imbalances across credit, housing, bond and equity markets. The paper documents the existence of slow-moving and persistent financial cycles...
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This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to estimate the spillover of external shocks to the Maltese economy. The model focuses on five broad macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area; an aggregate demand shock, two aggregate supply shocks which respectively proxy...
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We analyze the determinants of the inflation trends in ten Southeast European (SEE) countries. Global cost-related factors and euro area (EA) inflation developments play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics in SEE countries. Changes in world food and energy prices, together with...
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Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before - in particular in the Eurozone. We do not … performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone … advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our …
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