This paper summarizes evidence for the existence of a wage curve a downward-sloping relationship between the level of pay and the local unemployment rate in modern micro data. At the time of writing, the curve has been found in 40 nations. Its elasticity is approximately -0.1. -- wage...

Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters for wage growth are the non-employment rate and the...