The possible negative consequences of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have given rise to calls for public policy to ensure that it is safe, and to prevent improper use and misuse. Human-centered AI (HCAI) draws on ethical principles and puts forth actionable guidelines in this regard. So far...

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted trade and global value chains. Small open economies such as Portugal are particularly vulnerable. In this paper we consider the impact of the pandemic on the country's exports, arguing that an export-led recovery is possible. The challenge is to identify...

Technological innovation has historically contributed to inclusive economic growth in Germany. In more recent decades, however, this contribution has weakened due to the declining impact of technological innovation on labor productivity growth. Fearing that this declining impact would undermine...

An arms race for an artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be detrimental for and even pose an existential threat to humanity if it results in an unfriendly AGI. In this paper an all-pay contest model is developed to derive implications for public policy to avoid such an outcome. It is...

In this paper, we describe the historical co-evolution of innovation and economic growth in Germany since 1871. The country's rise as an industrial power in the late 19th century, through its innovation and entrepreneurial performance, is contrasted with the post-World War II period. This latter...

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially powerful tool in the fight against the COVID- 19 pandemic. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, there has been a scramble to use AI. This article provides an early, and necessarily selective review, discussing the contribution of AI to the fight...

Breakthroughs and backlashes have marked progress in the development and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These shocks make the investment in developing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper applies a real options model, extended to...

This paper identifies the causal effects of trade shocks on worker outcomes. We exploit a unique setting based on three pillars: (i) a large, unanticipated appreciation of the Swiss franc in 2015, (ii) detailed data with firm-level exposure to trade via output markets (both domestic and foreign)...