The Global Crisis demonstrated to the world that Ratings Agencies had misled the public about the stability of … although risk can be measured, uncertainty cannot be measured. Even though risk can be measured, a simple symmetric measure … attempt at "measuring" risk or (fundamental) uncertainty is flawed. …

. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and …

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …

national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but …

success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military theory as factors in the …

perception of economic well-being, possibly influenced by such tactics, predicts war and peace onset. Using unique data … bracketing the onset of the Nepalese Civil War, we find that higher levels of perceived income adequacy are associated with later … war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with earlier peace onset in general. These results hold regardless of …