Showing 1 - 10 of 367
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387
. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619
relatively little social connectedness in Australia. Specifically, our results show that first-generation Australians, especially …-generation Australians. Similarly, having a partner with deeper generational roots in Australia strongly reduces the likelihood to emigrate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450204
Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012873113
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002120362
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003859346
This paper empirically analyzes whether the character-based approach, which is based on the personality structure and the human capital of business founders, allows prediction of entrepreneurial success. A unique data set is used consisting of 414 previously unemployed persons whose personal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003540253