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Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); … - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002120362

Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting

Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003859346

Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland : an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin (contributor); … - 2007

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003561644

Measurement error in subjective expectations and the empirical content of economic models

Drerup, Tilman; Enke, Benjamin; Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von - 2014

While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We argue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414230

Uncertainty and the politics of employment protection

Vindigni, Andrea (contributor) - 2008

This paper investigates the role that idiosyncratic uncertainty plays in shaping social preferences over the degree of labor market flexibility, in a general equilibrium model of dynamic labor demand where the productivity of firms evolves over time as a Geometric Brownian motion. A key result...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003719624

Supply theory sans profit-maximization

Dasgupta, Indraneel - 2009

predictive content of the traditional theory of competitive supply. A number of key results in the deterministic theory follow as … predictive content of the classical theory of competitive firm behavior from its a priori roots in profit maximization, while … subsuming the traditional theory as a special case. -- Supply aggregation ; stochastic supply function ; stochastic consistency …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003810898

The identification and economic content of ordered choice models with stochastic thresholds

Cunha, Flávio (contributor); Heckman, James J. (contributor) - 2007

This paper extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval-specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003608454

Testing for restricted stochastic dominance

Davidson, Russell (contributor); … - 2006

Asymptotic and bootstrap tests are studied for testing whether there is a relation of stochastic dominance between two distributions. These tests have a null hypothesis of nondominance, with the advantage that, if this null is rejected, then all that is left is dominance. This also leads us to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003301664

Dynamic efficiency and pareto optimality in a stochastic OLG model with production and social security

Barbie, Martin; Hagedorn, Marcus; Kaul, Ashok - 2000

We analyze the interaction between risk sharing and capital accumulation in a stochastic OLG model with production. We give a complete characterization of interim Pareto optimality. Our characterization also subsumes equilibria with a PAYG social security system. In a competitive equilibrium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011339089

Searching for rehabilitation in nonparametric regression models with exogenous treatment assignment

Henderson, Daniel J.; Maasoumi, Esfandiar - 2012

This paper offers some new directions in the analysis of nonparamertric models with exogenous treatment assignment. The nonparametric approach opens the door to the examination of potentially different distributed outcomes. When combined with cross-validation, it also identifies potentially...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009629111

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