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In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011951089
high during 2016-2019, keeping inflation below the Reserve Bank's target band. Optimal monetary policy in 2016-2019 would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373260
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth" describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation, and … these shocks also generate plausible impulse-responses for unemployment. Although our theory contains no money illusion, no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011414902
period. The workers' bargaining power in the hours negotiation affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence … cost determination. This set-up produces realistic labor market statistics together with inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824877
Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003739948
affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014311952
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376179
Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U ….S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations … "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers appear far from anchored, much like those of households …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518200
In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize … is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting … headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307888