Showing 1 - 10 of 301
We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation … expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first … and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069388
This paper analyzes the causal relationships between marriage and subjective well-being in a longitudinal data set spanning 17 years. We find evidence that happier singles opt more likely for marriage and that there are large differences in the benefits from marriage between couples. Potential,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003158657
Researchers are often interested in estimating the causal effect of some treatment on individual criminality. For example, two recent relatively prominent papers have attempted to estimate the respective direct effects of marriage and gang participation on individual criminal activity. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003895082
Many empirical studies specify outcomes as a linear function of endogenous regressors when conducting instrumental variable (IV) estimation. We show that tests for treatment effects, selection bias, and treatment effect heterogeneity are biased if the true relationship is non-linear. These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003917067
We investigate whether a causal interpretation of the robust association between cognitive skills and economic growth is appropriate and whether cross-country evidence supports a case for the economic benefits of effective school policy. We develop a new common metric that allows tracking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003920009
We examine instrumental variables estimation in situations where the instrument is only observed for a sub-sample, which is fairly common in empirical research. Typically, researchers simply limit the analysis to the sub-sample where the instrument is non-missing. We show that when the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003934100
In many economic contexts, an elusive variable of interest is the agent's expectation about relevant events, e.g. about other agents' behavior. Recent experimental studies as well as surveys have asked participants to state their beliefs explicitly, but little is known about the causal relation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003935173
Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003937325
Estimating the rate of return to a university degree has always been difficult due to the problem of omitted variable biases. Benefiting from a special feature of the University Admission system in China, which has clear cutoffs for university entry, combined with a unique data set with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003939256
This paper shows nonparametric identification of quantile treatment effects (QTE) in the regression discontinuity design. The distributional impacts of social programs such as welfare, education, training programs and unemployment insurance are of large interest to economists. QTE are an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003975413