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In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011951089
We study biased survival expectations across two domains and examine whether such biased expectations influence health and financial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal data, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703131
We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014580789
account middle-inflation overestimate the impact of financial expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180406
affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014311952
primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive … observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that … information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431761
with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698646
An important advance in the study of reference-dependent preferences is the discipline provided by coherent accounts of reference point formation. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) provide such discipline by positing a reference point grounded in rational expectations. We examine the predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436164
Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and … formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but … the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms' inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012873113
Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U ….S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations … "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers appear far from anchored, much like those of households …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518200