This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...

While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...

This paper sheds light on the apparent paradox, wherein populations adversely affected by climatic conditions fail to migrate as much as would otherwise be expected. Drawing on Hirschman's treatise on Exit, Voice and Loyalty, we develop a simple model, which highlights the theoretical case for a...

This article clarifies and quantifies the causal impact of climate change vulnerability on child labour incidence and intensity. For this purpose, we create an index of vulnerability to climate change, composed of biophysical vulnerability and communities' resilience. Both, participation to...

This study comprehensively assesses the immediate effects of extreme weather conditions and high concentrations of ambient air pollution on population health. For Germany and the years 1999 to 2008, we link the universe of all 170 million hospital admissions, along with all 8 million deaths,...

We offer an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on...

Climate change is sometimes viewed as the most serious problem facing modern society. The science behind anthropogenic global warming has been understood for more than half a century. Yet relatively few economists work on topics related to climate change. What explains this (apparent) lack of...

Existing climate-economy models use aggregate damage functions to model the effects of climate change. This approach assumes climate change has equal impacts on the productivity of firms that produce consumption and investment goods or services. We show the split between damage to consumption...