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argue that the German government handled the immediate response to the energy shock well, but subsequently waited too long … controls as an optimal policy response to an energy shock within a general equilibrium framework. We develop a simple … generate endogenous price uncertainty in the wake of an energy shock. We also link our analysis to the so-called sunspot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545082
positive shock on some males. The analyzed outcome is marital status at early twenties for women and at mid and late twenties … for men. The probability to be never-married decreases in the American oil-producing areas immediately after the shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012005460
This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014454468
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001937623
-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013500734
This paper considers labor market adjustments following a large import shock in the German clothing industry caused by … industries and occupations. -- Import shock ; adjustment ; clothing industry ; Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003926723
We use electoral survey data to examine the impact that two large external shocks had on the development of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the OECD. We find that structural reforms, which led to large negative impacts on particular locations, and immigration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517514
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
How does international trade affect the popularity of governments and leaders? The recent backlash against globalization renders this question extremely topical. Yet, most previous work has looked for political effects of aggregate trade flows without decomposing into particular types of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180469
We bring the notion of connectedness (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012) to a set of two critical macroeconomic variables as inflation and unemployment. We focus on the G7 economies plus Spain, and use monthly data –high-frequency data in a macro setting – to explore the extent and consequences of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491801