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Coerced labor in the cotton sector : how global commodity prices (don't) transmit to the poor

Danzer, Alexander M.; Grundke, Robert - 2016

's geographic variation in the suitability for cotton production combined with a surge in the world market price of cotton in 2010 … command political capital to coerce workers. The expansion in land attributed to cotton production led to increases in labor … demand and wages for cotton pickers; however, the price hike benefits only workers on entrepreneurial private farms, whereas …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011480812

Nowcasting business cycles using toll data

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581

Firms' inflation expectations: new evidence from France

Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022

Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012873113

Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe

Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - 2023

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387

Five open questions about prediction markets

Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954

Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

Leigh, Andrew (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor) - 2006

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619

Prediction markets for economic forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582

Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID-19 spread and economic expectation

Banerjee, Ritwik; Majumdar, Priyama - 2020

Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390

Sudden stop: when did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?

Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla; Link, Sebastian - 2020

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012248894

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358

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