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We develop a model which shows that wages, prices and real income should grow faster in countries with low increase in their labour force. If not, other countries experience growing unemployment and/or trade deficit. This result is applied to the case of Germany, which has displayed a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012255659
Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013448558
Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550371
estimates. The research period has been characterised by high labour demand, negative supply shocks, high levels of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545239
We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find … that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation … extensive margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053872
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001784331
The civil war in Syria has culminated into major refugee crises in its neighboring countries. By the end of 2013 more than half a million people were seeking shelter in cities and refugee camps in Turkey. We analyze how the Syrian refugee influx in Turkey has affected food and housing prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478984
and inflation rates. Building on the lessons from recent advances in time-series econometrics, we suggest instead that one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403817
inflation observed in the European catching-up countries, which suggests that other factors may be at play. In these and related … non-traded sectors) on the dual inflation differential is more than twice as large as that in the "flexible" countries. We … conclude that, in a catching-up country, premature euro adoption may foster excess inflation, beyond that which is to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191206
stickiness and price dispersion. We demonstrate that calculations of price inflation require conditioning not only on CPU quality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419306