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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - 2023
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387
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The crisis, policy reactions and attitudes to globalization and jobs
Bell, David N. F.; Blanchflower, David G. - 2011
We consider the effects of the financial crisis and subsequent recession on world labour markets. It begins by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009296355
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Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003693703
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Identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations : a new approach
Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2002
common component, we find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411238
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Productivity and size of the export market : evidence for West and East German plants, 2004
Wagner, Joachim (contributor) - 2007
first comprehensive evidence on the relationship between productivity and size of the export market for Germany, a leading … actor on the world market for manufactured goods. It documents that firms that export to countries inside the euro-zone are … more productive than firms that sell their products in Germany only, but less productive than firms that export to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003539184
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Explaining happiness trends in Europe
Easterlin, Richard A.; O'Connor, Kelsey J. - 2023
In Europe differences among countries in the overall change in happiness since the early 1980s have been due chiefly to the generosity of welfare state programs - increasing happiness going with increasing generosity and declining happiness with declining generosity. This is the principal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013502264
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Nowcasting business cycles using toll data
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011
-driven economic telemetry, which we suggest should be established more around the world. -- business cycles ; data mining ; evaluating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
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From mancession to shecession: women's employment in regular and pandemic recessions
Alon, Titan; Coskun, Sena; Doepke, Matthias; Koll, David; … - 2021
We examine the impact of the global recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic on women's versus men's employment. Whereas recent recessions in advanced economies usually had a disproportionate impact on men's employment, giving rise to the moniker "mancessions," we show that the pandemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012493353
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Business cycles, unemployment and entrepreneurial entry : evidence from Germany
Fritsch, Michael; Kritikos, Alexander; Pijnenburg, Katharina - 2013
what extent business cycles or unemployment levels influence entries into entrepreneurship. Our analysis for Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229512