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Analyzing social experiments as implemented : a reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program
Heckman, James J.; Moon, Seong Hyeok; Pinto, Rodrigo; … - 2010
Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. "Significant" effects are often reported with p-values that do not account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008779931
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Structural models for policy-making: coping with parametric uncertainty
Eisenhauer, Philipp; Gabler, Janos; Janys, Lena - 2021
The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517558
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The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on firm decisions
Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - 2022
Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329618
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Political selection when uncertainty is high
Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Hessami, Zohal; Khasanboev, … - 2022
Do voters place their trust in tried and tested leaders when uncertainty is high or do they prefer a new slate of leaders who are arguably more competent? To study this question, we make use of hand-collected data on 402,385 candidates who competed in open-list local council elections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347142
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Pandemic-era uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2022
national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186704
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Macroeconomic derivatives : an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S. (contributor);  … - 2005
. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003227221
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Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs
Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
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Entrepreneurs : clueless, biased, poor heuristics, or Bayesian machines?
Åstebro, Thomas; Fossen, Frank M.; Gutierrez, Cédric - 2024
than risk and are unlikely to have estimates of all probabilities for all potential outcomes, it becomes difficult to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015048801
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On the psychological foundations of ambiguity and compound risk aversion
Wu, Keyu; Fehr, Ernst; Hofland, Sean; Schonger, Martin - 2024
attitudes towards ambiguity and compound risk which suggests that compound risk aversion may provide a psychological foundation … for ambiguity aversion. However, compound risk aversion and ambiguity aversion may also be independent psychological …’s ability to reduce compound to simple risks, and analyzing how this affects their compound risk and ambiguity attitudes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544917
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The role of interpersonal uncertainty in prosocial behavior
Chakraborty, Anujit; Henkel, Luca - 2025
In prosocial decisions, decision-makers face interpersonal uncertainty - uncertainty about how their choices impact others' utility. We use three approaches to show how it shapes classic patterns of prosocial behavior like ingroup favoritism, merit-based fairness, and self-favoring behavior....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199844