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Analyzing social experiments as implemented : a reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program
Heckman, James J.; Moon, Seong Hyeok; Pinto, Rodrigo; … - 2010
Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. "Significant" effects are often reported with p-values that do not account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008779931
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Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs
Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
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The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on firm decisions
Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - 2022
Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329618
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Dynamic incentive contracts under parameter uncertainty
Prat, Julien; Jovanovic, Boyan - 2010
We analyze a long-term contracting problem involving common uncertainty about a parameter capturing the productivity of the relationship, and featuring a hidden action for the agent. We develop an approach that works for any utility function when the parameter and noise are normally distributed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009303458
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A field study of Chinese migrant workers' attitudes toward risks, strategic uncertainty, and competitiveness
Hao, Li; Houser, Daniel; Mao, Lei; Villeval, Marie-Claire - 2014
Using a field experiment in China, we study whether migration status is correlated with attitudes toward risk … from non-migrants in risk and ambiguity preferences elicited using pairs of lotteries; however, migrants are significantly … competitive environment than by risk attitudes under state uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010360288
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The ambiguity triangle : uncovering fundamental patterns of behavior under uncertainty
Burghart, Dan; Epperly, Thomas G. W.; Fehr, Ernst - 2015
risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011289313
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How uncertainty and ambiguity in tournaments affect gender differences in competitive behavior
Balafoutas, Loukas; Sutter, Matthias - 2019
Tournament incentives prevail in labor markets. Yet, the number of tournament winners is often unclear to competitors. While it is hard to measure how this uncertainty affects work performance and willingness to compete in the field, it can be studied in a controlled lab experiment. We present a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015779
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Structural models for policy-making: coping with parametric uncertainty
Eisenhauer, Philipp; Gabler, Janos; Janys, Lena - 2021
The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517558
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The role of interpersonal uncertainty in prosocial behavior
Chakraborty, Anujit; Henkel, Luca - 2025
In prosocial decisions, decision-makers face interpersonal uncertainty - uncertainty about how their choices impact others' utility. We use three approaches to show how it shapes classic patterns of prosocial behavior like ingroup favoritism, merit-based fairness, and self-favoring behavior....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199844
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Political selection when uncertainty is high
Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Hessami, Zohal; Khasanboev, … - 2022
Do voters place their trust in tried and tested leaders when uncertainty is high or do they prefer a new slate of leaders who are arguably more competent? To study this question, we make use of hand-collected data on 402,385 candidates who competed in open-list local council elections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347142