holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral explanation why and how overconfidence can evolve in the presence …

We report an experiment that infers true overconfidence in relative ability through actions, as opposed to reported … top half. We find evidence of aggregate overconfidence only in a treatment that receives minimal feedback on performance … in a trial task. In treatments that receive more detailed feedback, aggregate overconfidence is not observed although …

Overconfidence is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their own judgments is … dramatic consequences. To test whether the overconfidence bias affects the decision of backcountry skiers to go on a ski trip … respondent. We show that 1) overconfidence is widespread even in our sample and 2) practitioners who are more prone to …

lead to a negative relationship between performance and overestimation, even if skill and overconfidence are unrelated. To … clarify the role of measurement error, we restate the Dunning-Kruger effect in terms of skill and overconfidence. We show that …

the implications of overconfidence for worker welfare and firm profits, we estimate a structural learning model with … biased beliefs that ac-counts for many key features of the data. While worker overconfidence moderately decreases worker …