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Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
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Economic surplus and derived demand
Schlicht, Ekkehart (contributor) - 2006
Most demand -- especially labor demand -- is derived from the demand for some other product. This note demonstrates that the usual analysis of economic rent, as typically explained for the case of consumers' surplus, carries over to the case of derived demand. -- derived demand ; indirect demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003333109
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Prediction markets in theory and practice
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003289880
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Macroeconomic derivatives : an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S. (contributor);  … - 2005
In September 2002, a new market in "Economic Derivatives" was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003227221
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The elite and the marginalised : an analysis of public spending on mass education in the Indian States
Pal, Sarmistha (contributor); Ghosh, Sugata (contributor) - 2008
-development spending ; India …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003758959
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Caste based discrimination : evidence and policy
Siddique, Zahra (contributor) - 2008
Caste-based quotas in hiring have existed in the public sector in India for decades. Recently there has been debate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003760072
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Union membership effect on wage premiums : evidence from organized manufacturing industries in India
Bhandari, Amit Kumar (contributor) - 2008
organised manufacturing industries in India. The study uses a recent survey data on labour market in the organised manufacturing … benefits in the organized manufacturing industries in India. -- Trade unions ; wage differentials ; manufacturing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003760317
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Child work and schooling costs in rural Northern India
Hazarika, Gautam (contributor);  … - 2006
children's propensities to work and to attend school in rural northern India in a bid to assess the extent of trade-off between … activities. Thus, unlike recent studies of child work in India's South Asian neighbors of Bangladesh and Pakistan, this paper … uncovers evidence of substantial trade-off between child work and school attendance. -- child labor ; schooling costs ; India …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003323155
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Sibling death clustering in India : state dependence vs. unobserved heterogeneity
Arulampalam, Wiji (contributor);  … - 2006
extent of state dependence in India, distinguishing this from family-level risk factors common to siblings. It offers a … ; multi-level model ; India …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003355648
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Reforms, entry and productivity : some evidence from the Indian manufacturing sector
Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar (contributor);  … - 2006
factors governing entry rates, especially in the context of developing countries. Using 3-digit industry level data from India … institutional and legacy factors. We also find evidence to suggest that, in India, entry rates were positively associated with … growth in total factor productivity. -- entry ; productivity ; institutions ; regulations ; India ; reforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310958