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Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
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Mobility in an enlarging European Union : projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia
Fertig, Michael; Kahanec, Martin - 2013
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194751
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Forecasts : consumption, production, and behavioral responses
Ahmad, Husnain Fateh; Gibson, Matthew; Nadeem, Fatiq; … - 2022
forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472006
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Fatal errors : the mortality value of accurate weather forecasts
Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - 2023
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014309747
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Measurement error in earnings data: replication of Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek’s mixture model approach to combining survey and register data
Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando - 2021
Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek (MRW, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012) develop methods for prediction of a single earnings figure per worker from mixture factor models fitted using earnings data from multiple linked data sources. MRW apply their method using parameter estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485862
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Sluggish institutions in a dynamic world : can unions and industrial competition coexist?
Hirsch, Barry T. (contributor) - 2007
During the 1930s and 1940s, collective bargaining emerged as the workplace governance norm in much of the U.S. industrial sector. Following its peak in the 1950s, union density in the U.S. private sector fell steadily, to only 7.4 percent in 2006. Governance shifted from a formalized union norm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003591477
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Wage determination in the US airline industry : union power under product market constraints
Hirsch, Barry T. (contributor) - 2006
The paper analyzes wages in the U.S. airline industry, focusing on the role of collective bargaining in a changing … product market environment. Airline unions have considerable strike threat power, but are constrained by the financial health … of carriers. Since airline deregulation, compensation has waxed and waned in response to the industry's economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003384910
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Monkey bars and ladders : the importance of lateral and vertical job mobility in internal labor market careers
Dohmen, Thomas J. (contributor); Kriechel, Ben (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001784382
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How do airlines cut fuel usage, reducing their carbon emissions?
Brueckner, Jan K.; Kahn, Matthew E.; Nickelsburg, Jerry - 2023
Airline fuel consumption is costly for the firms and for society as well due to a climate-change externality. We study … externality. The airline industry's capital stock can be easily inventoried as a set of long-lived, durable aircraft. This …. Changes in airline operations directed toward conserving fuel can be an important path toward lower emissions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014286491
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Vulnerability to poverty : Tajikistan during and after the global financial crisis
Gang, Ira N.; Gatskova, Kseniia; Landon-Lane, John S.; … - 2016
We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502647