Showing 1 - 10 of 166
expectations on future home values. We explore the relationship between house price expectations, local economic conditions, and … households' individual characteristics. We examine the heterogeneity in expectations based on panel data models. In particular … price expectations vary significantly over time, and are positively related to past housing returns and perceived economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414224
. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect … expectations on non-durable spending are imprecisely estimated but there is a sharp negative effect on durable spending. We provide … as well as aggregate spending when they increase their inflation expectations. There is little evidence to support the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012056956
We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation - is small: 0.11-0.17 for firms and 0.03-0.07 for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053872
Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014338662
We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations … about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First … changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306053
In this paper we analyse a new Phillips curve (NPC) model and demonstrate that (i) frictional growth, i.e. the interplay of wage-staggering and money growth, generates a nonvertical NPC in the long-run, and (ii) the Phillips curve (PC) shifts with productivity growth. On this basis we estimate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879334
This paper analyzes the cost of disinflations under real wage rigidities in a micro-founded New Keynesian model. The consensus is that real wage rigidities can be a useful mechanism to induce the inflation persistence that is absent in the standard Calvo model. Real wage rigidities thus generate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003561618
We incorporate inequity aversion into an otherwise standard New Keynesian dynamic equilibrium model with Calvo wage contracts and positive inflation. Workers with relatively low incomes experience envy, whereas those with relatively high incomes experience guilt. The former seek to raise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530187
The Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995-2006: unemployment has fallen by 15 percentage points, with roughly constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in Spain over this period. We show that the New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003656889
This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and wage inflation for 10 of the euro area countries. The combination of low wage inflation and high unemployment in Europe is usually attributed to a rise in the natural rate of unemployment. Using a panel data approach, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003035532