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Bivariate duration data frequently arise in economics, biostatistics and other areas. In "bivariate frailty models", dependence between the frailties (i.e., unobserved determinants) induces dependence between the durations. Using notions of quadrant dependence, we study restrictions that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339585
This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimates are moments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012161405
We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation … expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first … and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069388
This paper evaluates the success of Inflation Targeting on inflation and growth on a large panel data set of both … evidence to show that the support for a successful Inflation Targeting policy is very weak or non-existent. We use various … the process by which inflation targeting is hypothesised to influence inflation and growth, Section 3 surveys this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227388
the PC and explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the US from 1970 to 2006. Since our empirical … and inflation, while the monetary expansion was quite ineffective and led mainly to higher inflation. Finally, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879334
and inflation rates. Building on the lessons from recent advances in time-series econometrics, we suggest instead that one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403817
Central bankers are raising interest rates on the assumption that wage-push inflation may lead to stagflation. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013448558
We combine micro and macro unemployment duration data to study the effects of the business cycle on the outflow from unemployment. We allow the cycle to affect individual exit probabilities of unemployed workers as well as the composition of the total inflow into unemployment. We estimate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011318596
Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550371
associated with significant differences in the response of inflation to unemployment and exchange rate shocks. More wage … coordination and higher union density flatten the Phillips curve and increase the inflation response to the real exchange rate, i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347315