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How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? : new evidence from a time-varying threshold model
Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Saafi, Sami; Rault, … - 2024
Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527191
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Following Germany's lead : using international monetary linkages to identify the effect of monetary policy on the economy
Di Giovanni, Julian (contributor);  … - 2005
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002630639
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Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union
Baas, Timo; Belke, Ansgar - 2017
they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785688
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How does financial globalization affect risk sharing? : Patterns and channels
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); Prasad, Eswar S. (contributor) - 2007
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examine how international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003586563
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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009311486
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Identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations : a new approach
Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2002
common component, we find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411238
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How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); Prasad, Eswar S. (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001745312
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003693703
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On the impact of oil prices on sectoral inflation : evidence from world's top oil exporters and importers
Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Rault, Christophe - 2024
This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014454468