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Have you heard the news? : how real-life expectations react to publicity
Wiel, Karen van der - 2009
As evidence is accumulating that subjective expectations influence behavior and that these expectations are sometimes biased, it becomes policy-relevant to know how to influence individuals' expectations. Information in the media is likely to affect how people picture the future. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824962
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Motivated belief updating and rationalization of information
Drobner, Christoph; Goerg, Sebastian J. - 2022
We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego-relevance of the task, we show that subjects update their beliefs optimistically because they derive direct utility flows from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013433247
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How transparency kills information aggregation : theory and experiment
Fehrler, Sebastian; Hughes, Niall - 2015
under secrecy. This occurs despite subjects revealing more information under transparency than theory predicts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010516456
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Fatal errors : the mortality value of accurate weather forecasts
Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - 2023
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014309747
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Correlation neglect in belief formation
Enke, Benjamin; Zimmermann, Florian - 2013
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such contexts many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009740017
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Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events
Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306040
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Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs
Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
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To see is to believe : common expectations in experimental asset markets
Cheung, Stephen L.; Hedegaard, Morten; Palan, Stefan - 2012
We challenge the recent claim that mispricing in the experimental asset markets introduced by Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988) is merely an artefact of confusion over declining fundamental value, and can be eliminated through appropriate training. We instead propose that when training is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009631461
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Forecasts : consumption, production, and behavioral responses
Ahmad, Husnain Fateh; Gibson, Matthew; Nadeem, Fatiq; … - 2022
forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …, Pakistan: 1) provision of air pollution forecasts; 2) general training in forecasting. Both reduced subjects' own air pollution …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472006
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Attention discrimination : theory and field experiments with monitoring information acquisition
Bartoš, Vojtěch; Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; … - 2014
We link two important ideas: attention is scarce and lack of information about an individual drives discrimination in selection decisions. Our model of allocation of costly attention implies that applicants from negatively stereotyped groups face "attention discrimination": less attention in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337423