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COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012248894
vulnerability. -- power market ; demand models ; demand response ; customer base-line ; forecast …The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated … the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009548648
assists drivers with finding customers by suggesting routes along which the demand is predicted to be high. We find that AI …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013433210
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors … ; event futures ; political forecasting ; prediction IVs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the … in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits … various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …. -- prediction markets ; forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582
errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358
During the period 1991-93, Finland experienced the deepest economic downturn in an industrialized country since the 1930s. We argue that the culprit behind this Great Depression was the collapse of Finnish trade with the Soviet Union, because it induced a costly restructuring of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831152
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964