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of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194751
forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472006
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014309747
This paper reviews some of the most popular policy evaluation methods in empirical microeconomics: social experiments … evaluation literature. A workhorse simulation model of education returns is used throughout the paper to discuss and illustrate … estimation and simulation results. -- Evaluation methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003771837
Much of the political economy analysis of reform focuses on the conflict of interest between groups that stand to gain or lose from the competing policy proposals. In reality, there is also a lot of disagreement about the working of the policy: in addition to conflicting interests, conflicting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003902085
This paper accounts for the value of children and future generations in the evaluation of health policies. This is … evaluation of current policies. Our model clarifies a series of puzzles from the literature on the "value of life" and on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003594436
Our research addresses fundamental long-standing concerns in the compensating wage differentials literature and its public policy implications: the econometric properties of estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) and the wide range of such estimates from about $0.5 million to about $21...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003561666
The context of community-based interventions presents formidable problems for any evaluation analysis. Group …-randomized studies do possess ideal properties in theory, but in practice, grouprandomization might not be a feasible alternative at all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011339092
This paper examines some recently proposed criteria for evaluation of the net social benefits of social programs. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171589