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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Volatility and growth : governments are key
Jetter, Michael - 2013
There exists a persistent disagreement in the literature over the effect of business cycles on economic growth. This paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a negative indirect effect, operating through the insurance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
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Age, death risk, and the design of an exit strategy: a guide for policymakers and for citizens who want to stay alive
Oswald, Andrew J.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh - 2020
Some commentators argue for a fairly general release from COVID-19 lockdown. That has a troubling flaw. It ignores the fatality risks that will then be faced by citizens in midlife and older. This paper provides information on the strong age-pattern in the risk of death from three countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212679
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From mancession to shecession: women's employment in regular and pandemic recessions
Alon, Titan; Coskun, Sena; Doepke, Matthias; Koll, David; … - 2021
We examine the impact of the global recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic on women's versus men's employment. Whereas recent recessions in advanced economies usually had a disproportionate impact on men's employment, giving rise to the moniker "mancessions," we show that the pandemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012493353
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Precious metal prices : a tale of four U.S. recessions
Agnese, Pablo; Garcia-del-Barrio, Pedro; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2023
This paper empirically examines the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e., gold, palladium, platinum, and silver) during the last four U.S. recessions. Unit root tests and fractional integration techniques suggest that gold still is the most prominent safe haven asset within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014246740
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Policies to help the working class in the aftermath of COVID-19: lessons from the Great Recession
Burkhauser, Richard V.; Corinth, Kevin; Holtz-Eakin, Douglas - 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government mandated shutdowns caused a historic shock to the U.S. economy and a disproportionate job loss concentrated among the working class. While an unprecedented social safety net policy response successfully offset earnings loses among lower-wage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485440
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Identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations : a new approach
Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2002
international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the … common component, we find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411238
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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global …The international business cycle is very important for Latin America's economic performance as the recent global crisis … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009311486
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How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); Prasad, Eswar S. (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001745312
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Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003693703