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When is the best time to give birth?
Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; … - 2014
Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010398779
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Financial expectations and household consumption : does middle inflation matter?
Brown, Sarah; Harris, Mark N.; Spencer, Christopher; … - 2020
Using British panel data, we explore the finding that households often expect theirÂ…financial position to remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180406
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Expected inflation, sunspots equilibria and persistent unemployment fluctuations
Dufourt, Frédéric; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, Leonor - 2009
We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879337
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Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor);  … - 2007
This paper extends the cross sectionally augmented panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the case of a … the maximum number of factors, in contrast to other panel unit root tests based on principal components that require in … addition the estimation of the number of factors as well as the factors themselves. Small sample properties of the proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003652679
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Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data
Elek, Petér S.; Köllő, János - 2017
We study the undeclared work patterns of Hungarian employees in relatively stable jobs, using a panel dataset that … 2001-2006. We estimate the determinants of undeclared work using Heckman-type random-effects panel probit models, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664480
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Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy - 2021
We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698646
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The effect of unconventional fiscal policy on consumption : new evidence based on transactional data
Koeniger, Winfried; Kress, Peter - 2024
We use novel transaction-level card expenditure data to estimate the effect of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) cut in Germany 2020. We find that the annualized growth rate of expenditures for durables increased by 6 percentage points (pp) during the tax cut, with a particularly strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084082
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The downward spiral
Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A. - 2022
There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382024
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Inflation and wage expectations of firms and employees
Buchheim, Lukas; Link, Sebastian; Möhrle, Sascha - 2024
We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053872
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The subjective inflation expectations of households and firms : measurement, determinants, and implications
Weber, Michael; D'Acunto, Francesco; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; … - 2022
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013271201