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Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; … - 2014

Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010398779

Expected inflation, sunspots equilibria and persistent unemployment fluctuations

Dufourt, Frédéric; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, Leonor - 2009

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879337

Financial expectations and household consumption : does middle inflation matter?

Brown, Sarah; Harris, Mark N.; Spencer, Christopher; … - 2020

Using British panel data, we explore the finding that households often expect theirÂ…financial position to remain …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180406

Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); … - 2007

This paper extends the cross sectionally augmented panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the case of a … the maximum number of factors, in contrast to other panel unit root tests based on principal components that require in … addition the estimation of the number of factors as well as the factors themselves. Small sample properties of the proposed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003652679

Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data

Elek, Petér S.; Köllő, János - 2017

We study the undeclared work patterns of Hungarian employees in relatively stable jobs, using a panel dataset that … 2001-2006. We estimate the determinants of undeclared work using Heckman-type random-effects panel probit models, and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664480

Zero lower bound on inflation expectations

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy - 2021

We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698646

Inflation, expectations and monetary policy : what have we learned and to what end?

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2025

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents have been and remain unanchored. The unanchored nature of inflation expectations, in combination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015407653

The effect of unconventional fiscal policy on consumption : new evidence based on transactional data

Koeniger, Winfried; Kress, Peter - 2024

We use novel transaction-level card expenditure data to estimate the effect of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) cut in Germany 2020. We find that the annualized growth rate of expenditures for durables increased by 6 percentage points (pp) during the tax cut, with a particularly strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084082

The downward spiral

Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A. - 2022

There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382024

Inflation and wage expectations of firms and employees

Buchheim, Lukas; Link, Sebastian; Möhrle, Sascha - 2024

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053872