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Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - 2023
effects and lagged unemployment. We also use industrial firm's expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387
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Measurement error in earnings data: replication of Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek’s mixture model approach to combining survey and register data
Jenkins, Stephen; Rios-Avila, Fernando - 2021
Meijer, Rohwedder, and Wansbeek (MRW, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012) develop methods for prediction of a single earnings figure per worker from mixture factor models fitted using earnings data from multiple linked data sources. MRW apply their method using parameter estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485862
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Correcting for misclassied binary regressors using instrumental variables
Haider, Steven; Stephens, Melvin - 2020
Estimators that exploit an instrumental variable to correct for misclassification in a binary regressor typically … assume that the misclassification rates are invariant across all values of the instrument. We show that this assumption is … invalid in routine empirical settings. We derive a new estimator that is consistent when misclassification rates vary across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012266298
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Nowcasting business cycles using toll data
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
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Five open questions about prediction markets
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
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Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets
Leigh, Andrew (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor) - 2006
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582
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Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID-19 spread and economic expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik; Majumdar, Priyama - 2020
positive cases in the future. The bias is positively correlated with optimistic expectations about the future macroeconomic … interventions decrease risky investment and help moderate future economic expectations through the reduction in EGB. The results … economic expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
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Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of its effects
Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358
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Firms' inflation expectations: new evidence from France
Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2022
Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and … formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but … the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms' inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012873113