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We study experimental markets in which participants face incentives modeled upon those prevailing in markets for managed funds. Each participant's portfolio is periodically evaluated at market value and ranked in a league table according to short-term paper returns. Those who rank highly attract...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009306962
We exploit a natural experiment in which two professionals compete in a one-stage contest without strategic motives and where one contestant has a clear exogenous psychological momentum advantage over the other in order to estimate the causal effect of psychological momentum on performance. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011455776
Many models of investor behavior predict that investors prefer assets that they believe to have positively skewed return distributions. We provide a direct test of this prediction in a representative sample of the Dutch population. Using individual-level data on return expectations for a broad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012805556
Traders in global markets operate at different local times-of-day. Suboptimal times-of-day may produce sleepiness due to daily variations in sleep/wake patterns and possibly also increased accumulation of hours awake. Global asset markets imply significantly increased heterogeneity in circadian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731909
Asset market bubbles and crashes are a major source of economic instability and inefficiency. Sometimes ascribed to animal spirits or irrational exuberance, their source remains imperfectly understood. Experimental methods can isolate systematic deviations from an asset's fundamental value in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870688
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003985756
Many studies estimate the impact of exposure to some quasi-experimental policy or event using a panel event study design. These models, as a generalized extension of 'difference-in-differences' or two-way fixed effect models, allow for dynamic lags and leads to the event of interest to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256137
The stock market influences some of the most fundamental economic decisions of investors, such as consumption, saving, and labor supply, through the financial wealth channel. This paper provides evidence that daily fluctuations in the stock market have important - and hitherto neglected -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011893801
value of overconfidence). We present first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivation value of absolute … overconfidence that many microeconomic models build on. Moreover, we document that debiasing information increases the accuracy of … offer a novel strategy for identifying significant overconfidence at the individual level. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870710
A long-standing puzzle is how overconfidence can persist in settings characterized by repeated feedback. This paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014311540