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Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics
Kandoussi, Malak; Langot, François - 2020
Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243477
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Transmission of US and EU economic policy uncertainty shock to Asian economies in bad and good times
Balcilar, Mehmet; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Ozdemir, Huseyin - 2020
This study empirically examines the fragility of five major Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) to economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of US and EU, and oil prices in different state of the economies. To investigate these dynamics, we use the relative tail dependence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226632
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2017
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011631497
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Spillover effects of energy transition metals in Chile
Agnese, Pablo; Rios, Francisco - 2023
This paper examines the impact of spillover effects of energy transition metals on the Chilean economy. With the increasing demand for metals like copper and lithium due to the growth in renewable energies and electromobility, metal abundant countries like Chile must ready themselves to remain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014230169
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Phillips curves and unemployment dynamics : a critique and a holistic perspective
Karanassou, Marika (contributor); Sala, Hector (contributor) - 2006
"The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long-run implies that these phenomena can be analysed by separate branches of economics. The macro literature tries to explain inflation dynamics and estimates the NAIRU. The labour macro literature tries to explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003359297
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram (contributor);  … - 2007
This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003586562
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Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland : an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows
Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin (contributor);  … - 2007
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003561644
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On the relationship between public and private investment in the euro area
Dreger, Christian; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2014
This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques ac-counting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010252646
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The cyclicality of labor market flows : a multiple-shock approach
Hairault, Jean-Olivier; Zhutova, Anastasia - 2014
shock to the profitability of a match (the aggregate shock), a shock specific to the existing jobs (job-specific shock) and … a shock to the efficiency of the matching process (search shock). The two former shocks generate a quite balanced … contribution of the two transition rates to the volatility of unemployment, whereas the search shock implies a disproportionate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417964
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The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries : empirical evidence from Jordan
Fakih, Ali; Ibrahim, May - 2016
This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country's labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly 3 million registered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450222