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business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation … forecasts ; macroeconomic forecasting ; new products ; transportation ; production forecasting ; nowcasting ; telemetry …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012248894
Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April …, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358
In an era characterized by population aging and economic challenges in welfare states across the world, sustaining these welfare systems requires a large workforce. Many individuals outside the labor market aspire to work but encounter a labyrinth of obstacles. While Public Employment Services...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431794
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors … ; event futures ; political forecasting ; prediction IVs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the … in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits … various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619
. -- prediction markets ; forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
-called Hartz reforms in Germany. The new role of agency work emerges from its enormous growth after deregulation, the intense use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009523532