While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability … provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with … mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market …

forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …

mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …

technologies affect entrepreneurial opportunities and decision-making under uncertainty, the adoption of AI technologies by …

vulnerability. -- power market ; demand models ; demand response ; customer base-line ; forecast …