Showing 1 - 10 of 1,209
collected using a small number of probability questions on expectations and requires a weak prior knowledge of the shape of the … usefulness of the method by estimating a simple model to asses the impact of expectations on investment decisions in a commonly … used trust game. -- Approximation of subjective expectations ; spline interpolation ; decision making under uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003578887
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003845575
We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014580789
We study beliefs and choices in a repeated normal-form game. In addition to a baseline treatment with common knowledge of the game structure and feedback about choices in the previous period, we run treatments (i) without feedback about previous play, (ii) with no information about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003747648
We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to … information, and control for risk attitude. We find that the strength-weight bias affects expectations, but that its magnitude is … incentive compatibility and controls for risk attitude considerably affect inferences on errors in expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347344
We report an experiment that infers true overconfidence in relative ability through actions, as opposed to reported …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011612902
Using field and laboratory experiments, we demonstrate that the complexity of incentive schemes and worker bounded … rationality can affect effort provision, by shrouding attributes of the incentives. In our setting, complexity leads workers to … cause large shifts in behavior. Our results illustrate important implications of complexity for designing and regulating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014311541
Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes towards ambiguity and compound risk which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544917
Many decision models in marketing science and psychology assume that a consumer chooses by proceeding sequentially through a checklist of desirable properties. These models are contrasted to the utility maximization model of rationality in economics. We show on the contrary that the two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003656945
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic … systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price changes … distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376179