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Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582
of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194751
forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472006
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014309747
In the model of Harris and Holmstrom (1982) workers pay an insurance premium to prevent a wage decline. As employers are unable to assess the ability of a labour market entrant, they would offer a wage equal to expected productivity of the worker's category and adjust it with unfolding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011407951
Social impact bonds (SIBs) are an innovative financing mechanism for public goods. In a SIB, an investor provides capital to a service provider for a social intervention. The investor receives a return based on the outcome of the intervention relative to a predetermined benchmark. We describe...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243331
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
We show why considering a number of education-dependent covariates in the wage equation decreases coefficient of education in the wage equation. We use a meta-analysis of results for Portugal to show, empirically, that this is the case. The coefficient decreases when we use covariates that can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401392
We use two large Dutch datasets to estimate the Risk Augmented Mincer equation and test for risk compensation in expected earnings. We replicate earlier findings of a positive premium for risk and a negative premium for skew and add confirmation of the key results if we control for individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003309271