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Prices, policing and policy : the dynamics of crime booms and busts
Kirchmaier, Tom; Machin, Stephen; Sandi, Matteo; Witt, … - 2018
the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, the incidence of … metal thefts in the UK (and elsewhere) rose very sharply in the 2000s. Early in the current decade, they fell sharply again … shows sizeable and significant metal crime-price elasticities, in line with the idea that changing economic returns do shape …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853434
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Predictability of asset returns and the efficient market hypothesis
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003985756
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Pandemic-era uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2022
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186704
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Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID-19 spread and economic expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik; Majumdar, Priyama - 2020
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
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Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - 2023
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540387
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House price expectations
Niu, Geng; Soest, Arthur van - 2014
Utilizing new survey data collected between 2009 and 2014, this paper analyzes American households' subjective expectations on future home values. We explore the relationship between house price expectations, local economic conditions, and households' individual characteristics. We examine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414224
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003859346
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Nowcasting business cycles using toll data
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2011
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232581
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Mobility in an enlarging European Union : projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia
Fertig, Michael; Kahanec, Martin - 2013
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194751
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On the estimation and forecasting of international migration : how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?
Brücker, Herbert (contributor);  … - 2005
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003053134