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Prediction markets in theory and practice
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003289880
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On the exchange rate and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a panel VAR approach for emerging markets
Abid, Abir; Rault, Christophe - 2020
We examine the Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) response to the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) shocks from a panel VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239005
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Partisan impacts on the economy : evidence from prediction markets and close elections
Snowberg, Erik (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor);  … - 2006
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003289884
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The Economic Security Index : a new measure for research and policy analysis
Hacker, Jacob S.; Huber, Gregory A.; Nichols, Austin; … - 2012
combining data from multiple surveys, we create an integrated measure of volatility in available household resources, accounting … different groups are exposed to economic risk. As the ESI derives from a data-independent conceptual foundation, it can be … these sources. -- household income ; volatility ; wealth ; medical spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656083
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From riches to rags, and back? : institutional change, financial development and economic growth in Argentina since the 1890s
Campos, Nauro; Karanasos, Menelaos; Tan, Bin - 2014
individual effects on economic growth and volatility using the power-ARCH framework with annual data since the 1890s. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440609
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The variability and volatility of sleep: an archetypal approach
Hamermesh, Daniel S.; Pfann, Gerard A. - 2022
individuals' sleep time exhibits both variability and volatility characterized by stationary autoregressive conditional … young children at home. Volatility is greater among parents with young children, slightly greater among men than women, but … rates. Volatility in sleep spills over onto volatility in other personal activities, with no reverse causation onto sleep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012805079
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Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003310964
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Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates : evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach
Ben Salem, Leila; Zayati, Montassar; Nouira, Ridha; … - 2024
contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from …; during COVID-19; and during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series … volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494631
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Macroeconomic derivatives : an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk
Gürkaynak, Refet S. (contributor);  … - 2005
. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003227221
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State-level economic policy uncertainty
Baker, Scott; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A. - 2022
We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one that captures national and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170258