of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We … are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of …

forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …

mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …

. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and …

-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the … national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but …

We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic predictions of future offending (risk assessments) as an aid to … judicial discretion in felony sentencing. We find that judges' decisions are influenced by the risk score, leading to longer … evidence that this reshuffling led to a decline in recidivism, and, over time, judges appeared to use the risk scores less …