This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...

While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We argue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which...

Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are...

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...