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Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm in applied microeconomics. However, as is well known, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946760
health disparities, health behaviors, dynamic demand, side effects, structural models, HIV/AIDSaThis paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453995
assets or to invest. The model predicts that high uncertainty and potential sunk costs in a situation of rule of law …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003716535
Using uncertainty about the future returns to migration, the option value theory of migration can explain low migration … rates in spite of huge wage differences. This paper presents the theory in a simple two-period framework and uses ethnic … as theory predicts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405562
The probability triangle (also called the Marschak-Machina triangle) allows for compact and intuitive depictions of … risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that … characterize this heterogeneity with finite-mixture estimates of a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility Theory wherein 48 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011289313
surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent papers have discussed the role of "uncertainty" and its … measurement in influencing economic decisions. They attempt to measure uncertainty by indexes of volatility of the stock market …, GDP, forecaster disagreement, mentions of uncertainty in news media, and the dispersion of productivity shocks to firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543578
of uncertainty and of rationing efficiency. We show that regulatory uncertainty does not diminish the rationale for … intervention, but may require a low minimum wage that may not bind. With expected earnings-maximization, greater uncertainty widens …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011407940
We develop a theoretical model to identify and compare partial and equilibrium effects of uncertainty and the magnitude …. This interdependency is important since, in the case of legal uncertainty, higher fines may reduce the willingness to … hypotheses derived from the theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347317
uncertainty, where the probabilities of outcomes are not known but perceived, resulting in ambiguous probabilities. In this … context, ambiguity refers to the lack of precise and objective probability assessments and the presence of subjective … react to uncertainty from Frank Knight (1921) to the present day. Recognizing that entrepreneurs face uncertainty rather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015048801