Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …

risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that …The probability triangle (also called the Marschak-Machina triangle) allows for compact and intuitive depictions of … characterize this heterogeneity with finite-mixture estimates of a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility Theory wherein 48 …

-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a … generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking as a … decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a …

subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective … and objective individual-survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived mortality risk. We …

In prosocial decisions, decision-makers face interpersonal uncertainty - uncertainty about how their choices impact … remove social consequences but retain uncertainty, revealing strikingly similar patterns across both. Second, we exogenously … vary interpersonal uncertainty to estimate the aversion to interpersonal uncertainty and quantify how it combines with …

The purpose of this paper is to provide a general proposition of the relationship between altruism and risk taking. As … generalization of a preliminary result reported in Stark (2024). In a broad utility framework, we study the risk aversion of an … altruistic person who is an active donor (benefactor) and the risk aversion of a beneficiary of an altruistic transfer. In both …

in a model with non-durable and durable consumption. The stock of the durable is exposed to risk against which households … because agents can time-diversify their risk. Market insurance implies welfare gains of around .6% in terms of non …-durable consumption. Introducing labor income risk into the model does not necessarily increase the importance of market insurance if the …

take risk as measured by the general risk question. We demonstrate that this disposition, which we call risk conception, is … strongly associated with optimism, a stable facet of personality and that it predicts real-life risk taking. The general risk … question captures this disposition alongside pure risk preference. This enlightens why the general risk question is a better …

characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both … allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two … novel characterizations extend classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable …

We study the relative risk aversion of an individual with particular social preferences: his wellbeing is influenced by …, the individual becomes more risk averse when he rises in the wealth hierarchy. Second, if the individual's level of … intensification is strong enough, then the individual becomes less risk averse: the individual's desire to advance further in the …